Towards below Replacement Fertility in Southern Africa

Michel Garenne, Institut Pasteur
Stephen Tollman, University of the Witwatersrand
Kathleen Kahn, University of the Witwatersrand

The paper compares fertility trends, mortality trends and net reproduction rates between two case studies conducted in Agincourt and Hlabisa in rural South Africa. Data come from the demographic surveillance systems (DSS) put in place in Limpopo since 1992 and in Kwazulu-Natal since 2000. Data combine retrospective information from the baseline census and prospective information from the DSS. Both studies show that period fertility tends towards below replacement levels in the recent years, partly because of fast fertility decline, and partly because of increasing mortality due to HIV/AIDS. Cohort fertility in the case of Agincourt is also discussed. Projection of the current trends over the next 10 years lead to a level much below replacement. The data indicate that population size might decline in the near future unless proper measures are taken to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Results are compared to other data from South Africa.