Forecasting U.S. Mortality Using Cohort Smoking Index

Haidong Wang, University of Pennsylvania
Sam Preston, University of Pennsylvania

In this paper, we introduce a recently established relationship between cohort smoking patterns and adult mortality into mortality projections for the United States. In particular, we incorporate a variable representing the intensity of smoking within a cohort into the original Lee-Carter model. By accounting for the striking variability in sex differentials in mortality, this variable enables us to introduce a common temporal trend of mortality change, rather than a separate trend for each sex. We project age-specific mortality rates for men and women in age group 40-85 between year 2003 and 2075 in the U.S. and demonstrate how the introduction of cohort influences affects mortality projections.