Projections of Elderly Disability and Care Needs for the States of California, Florida, Minnesota, and North Carolina

Zhenglian Wang, Duke University
Danan Gu, Duke University
Yi Zeng, Duke University

Based on available demographic data and data on disability and care needs derived from the 2000 and 1990 censuses micro datasets and using the ProFamy method/software for households and consumption forecasting, we present projections of numbers of self-care disabled elderly and care needs by age, race and living arrangement from 2000 to 2050 for California, Florida, North Carolina, and Minnesota. These four states are chosen since they represent four typical types of regions with different race compositions, degree in population aging and economic development levels. Three scenarios (high, medium and low) of disability trends have been conducted based on the medium scenario of household projection. While there are many similarities in the future trend of care needs across the states, the cross-state differentials are notable. Discussion for such cross-state similarities and differentials are presented. We also discuss the policy implications on socioeconomic planning of future elderly care needs.