The Determinants of Contraceptive Use in Kenya and the Fertility Transition

David Ojakaa, Université de Montréal

Between 1977 and 1998 the population dynamics of Kenya shifted from natural to controlled fertility. Nevertheless, contributions of the family planning program and change in fertility intentions remain unclear. The 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) and the 1999 Kenya Service Provision Assessment (KSPA) are used to respond to that question. The study is based on the fertility demand-supply framework, and addresses several methodological issues including endogeneity and the need for a dynamic fertility model. Four logit structural equations are developed, with method used, fertility intentions, lifetime births and child deaths as dependent variables. Hypotheses tested comprise the effect of the number of surviving children, community socio-economic characteristics, exposure to a family planning message, and perceived access to family planning services including Community Based Distributors (CBDs), on use of a modern method. Conclusions from this evaluation-type study are used to recommend more effective strategies for population policy and programs.