Italian Fertility: Is a Recovery Under Way?

Maria Castiglioni, Università di Padova
Marcantonio Caltabiano, Università di Padova
Alessandro Rosina, Università Cattolica, Milan

Italy is one of the lowest low fertility countries, often cited as an example of steady fertility decline. However, recent years period fertility seems to have recovered slightly, rising from a minimum of 1.19 child per woman in 1995 to 1.34 in 2005. In the first part of this paper we present these recent fertility developments in Italy, both at overall and regional levels. We apply a cohort approach, showing changes in cohort TFR and in the timing of births for 1950-1980 cohorts. Signs of recovering are emerging in the more modern northern regions. In the second part of our paper we focus on fertility after age 35, using individual data. Applying a multiprocess regression approach we investigate the determinants of postponement (propensity to reach age 35 without having had a child) and the determinants of recovering (propensity to subsequently have a child for those reaching age 35 without children).