Fertility Patterns in Low Fertility Countries: A Cross-Continental Comparison

Lopamudra Paul, Jawaharlal Nehru University
P. M Kulkarni, Jawaharlal Nehru University

With fertility in many populations falling to replacement levels, distinct patterns have emerged in the age pattern of fertility. This paper examines age patterns of fertility in over 30 countries across the six continents, and in some states in India, with TFR very close to the replacement level, in the range 1.8 to 2.4. A cluster analysis of the fertility schedules reveals three distinct age patterns of low fertility. The first pattern has a prominent peak in the age group 20-24 and sharp decline in the 30s. The second pattern is less peaked with only gradual rise initially and a gradual fall after 30. The third pattern shows very low fertility in adolescent ages, and a rise through the 20s. Some continental clustering is seen with American countries falling in the second pattern and European in the third though a few countries from other continents also follow these patterns.