On the Momentum of Marriage Decline

Nan Li, United Nations
Vasantha K. Kandiah, United Nations

Over the last several decades, first-marriage rates declined remarkably in the more developed regions, raising the proportion never-marrying at ages 45-49 to 8.5% on average. We analyze the future trends in the proportions never-marrying for 96 countries, of which 32 are in the more developed regions, 42 are in the less developed regions, and 22 are the least developed countries. In a way similar to the approach of population momentum, we assume that first-marriage rates stop declining instantaneously and remain constant over the next 35 years. Even under such an optimistic assumption, however, we find that on average the proportion never-marrying at ages 45-49 would still increase by more than threefold for countries in the more developed regions. Few countries and areas in the less developed regions would follow the trends in the more developed regions. And there is yet no sign of marriage decline in the least developed countries.