A Stochastic Forecast of the Italian Population, 2005-2055

Tiziana Torri, University of Rome and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Daniele Vignoli, University of Rome and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Italy is the oldest demographic country in the world and one of the twenty nations with high number of immigrants. The ageing process, as a consequence of the lowest-low Italian fertility and continuous improvements in levels of mortality, results in an increasing burden on working age population and the Social Security System. The demographic future of Italy is uncertain. No one can say precisely how the future demographic development will look like. However, differently from other forecasts performed using a deterministic approach, by means of Monte Carlo simulations we have quantified the probability at which our projection will be reached, given predictive probability distribution of age-specific fertility, mortality and migration rates. It is very likely that the population of Italy will decline in the future and that the population aging, consequences of the persisting lowest-low level of fertility and continuous reduction of mortality especially at older ages are inevitable.