Spatial Modeling of the Amazon Deforestation

Ricardo A. Garcia, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Britaldo Soares-Filho, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

The greatest challenge in establishing a function of socioeconomic development for an environmental degradation potential, as in the specific case of deforestation, is in obtaining measures for a group of variables that give some indication of the dependent variable behavior in a the future. This paper aims to explore, in a spatial context, the variables that better explain the Amazon deforestation. We reach a parsimonious model, capable of showing the environmental degradation behavior of that area in the future. Based on the statistical exploration of the variables that are directly or indirectly involved in the process of Amazon deforestation, the main objective of this paper is to elaborate classic and spatial lineal models that establish functional relationships between the variables and the percentage of the deforested areas. The estimated models are intended for subsidizing the simulation of future scenerios, integrating socioeconomic variations and deforestation impact levels.