HIV/AIDS: Trends, Forecasts, Exploring HIV Policy and Program Alternative Predictions Using Deterministic Asian Epidemic Model

Damodar Sahu, National Institute of Research in Medical Statistics (ICMR), India
Niranjan Saggurti, Population Council
Arvind Pandey, National Institute of Research in Medical Statistics (ICMR), India

Estimates and projections of HIV infections make an important contribution to public health policy in India. In addition, identification of the right target populations for intervention could be the most cost-effective strategy in the AIDS control program. The epidemiological, behavioral, programmatic, policy, resource allocation and program coverage data from Mumbai was used in AEM, a deterministic model to estimate the current and future course of the epidemic. The results indicate that non-brothel based sex work is increasing in Mumbai. Nine out of every ten infections occurring are due to heterosexual transmission, mainly from non-brothel based sex workers to clients to their wives. Universal coverage and condom promotion among non-brothel based sex workers can avert eighty eight percent of the new infections. Targeting non-brothel based sex workers offers a critical window of hope in responding to the burden of HIV incidence.