Local Variation in the One-Child Policy and Its Determinants: 1989-2000

Shige Song, University of California, Los Angeles

I look at cross-temporal changes in implementation of the “one-child” policy at the local community-level in nine Chinese provinces between 1989 and 2000 using longitudinal community data from the Chinese Health and Nutrition Survey and growth mixture model. The result shows that the cross-temporal trend of the policy change is not homogeneous. Instead, four clear-cut subgroups with distinctive policy change trajectories can be identified from the data: during 1989-2000, probability of allowing second birth remains largely constant in about 74% of all communities (low in 43% while high in 31%); the probability keeps increasing in 10% of all communities while keeps decreasing in 16% of all communities. I also study the effects of other community-level characteristics (i.e. economic composition, ethnic composition, urban/rural composition) on community’s group membership with regard to trend in the one-child change, and effects of other community-level characteristics on trajectory of policy change within each subgroup.