Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: Falling and Stalling

David Shapiro, Pennsylvania State University
Tesfayi Gebreselassie, Macro International Inc.

This paper uses data from the Demographic and Health Surveys that have been carried out in sub-Saharan Africa to: 1) examine the current status of fertility transition in the region, including the extent to which fertility decline has stalled; 2) study the links between contraceptive use, fertility preferences, and socioeconomic development (as reflected in women's education, infant and child survival, and real economic growth), on the one hand, and fertility decline and stalling, on the other; and 3) assess prospects for fertility decline in the region. We focus on results from the 25 countries that have had multiple Demographic and Health Surveys, since these data, representing over 80 percent of the region's population, provide direct evidence on fertility transition within individual countries. While fertility decline is being experienced in the majority of countries, there are several countries exhibiting stalling of fertility decline, some in mid-transition and others in early transition.