The Age-Sex Patterns of Person-Based Migration Rates for States: 2000-2004

Amy S. Smith, U.S. Census Bureau

The domestic migration component needed to produce subnational population estimates is calculated at the Census Bureau using tax return information. The current “return-based” method assigns the characteristics of the spouse and dependents based on the filer’s characteristics. This paper evaluates a “person-based” method in which characteristics are assigned directly based on matching to the Person Characteristics File (PCF). The evaluation shows that the person-based methodology produced demographically reasonable state-level rates by age/sex. In general, they are consistent for states across the four periods. These rates were similar to the national interstate patterns by age and sex. A few states had unique migration patterns, particularly for ages 20-24 to 25-29 and 65+, these are highlighted in the paper. The patterns were similar in most states for males and females and remained consistent over time.