Fertility Transition in the Developing World: Progress or Stagnation?

John Bongaarts, Population Council

Over the past quarter century fertility has declined at a rapid pace in many developing countries. Projections typically assume that this trend will continue until the replacement level is reached. However, recent evidence suggests that ongoing declines may have slowed or stalled in a number of countries. The objective of this study is to examine the pace of recent fertility changes in the developing world to determine whether ongoing transitions are accelerating or decelerating. Levels and trends in six indicators of reproductive behavior are examined using data from DHS surveys. The main finding is that the average pace of decline in fertility is lower ca. 2000 than in the mid 1990s. A deceleration of the pace of decline is particularly evident in sub-Saharan Africa. The study concludes with an assessment of implications for future trends in fertility.