Brazilian Elderly Population in 2050: Differentials among States, Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Areas

Luciana C. Alves, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública/FIOCRUZ
Ricardo A. Garcia, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

During the last decades, the demographic transition process observed in Brazil caused expressive age structure changes and population aging. The objectives of this work are: (i) to project the Brazilian aged (60+) population by age and sex, until 2050; (ii) and to analyze the Brazilian population aging differentials for the states, and for the metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. Data comes from the 2000 Brazilian Demographic Census. The projection methodology is the Cohort Relation Method, proposed by Duchesne (1989). The results show, in 2050: (i) an accelerated aging process and great differentials between the states; (ii) and that there will be a higher proportion of elderly population living in the non-metropolitan areas.