Will Fertility among Danish Women Remain Stable Due to Assisted Reproduction? Assessing the Role of In Vitro Fertilization in Sustaining Cohort Fertility Rates

Tomas Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography
Martin Hansen, Rigshospitalet
Tina Jensen, Syddansk Universitet
Niels E. Skakkebæk, Rigshospitalet

Broad availability and widespread use of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) could become one of the most prominent factors preventing a decline in completed fertility of Danish women, who have increasingly postponed childbearing to higher ages. We analyse and project cohort trends in total and ART-related fertility rates, using register data on births and ART treatments among native Danish women born in 1960-1978. Our projections show that women born in the 1970s are likely to retain fertility rates that are relatively close to the replacement-level threshold. The projections indicate that the continuation of relatively high and stable fertility will be partly sustained by a rapid rise in the use of assisted reproduction technologies. The projected proportion of children born after ART treatment shows a substantial increase from 2.5 percent among women born in 1965 to 5-6 percent among women born in 1978.