The Impact of Spatially Proximate Population Concentrations on Migration

Kenneth M. Johnson, Loyola University Chicago
Paul R. Voss, University of Wisconsin at Madison
Roger B. Hammer, Oregon State University
Guangqing Chi, Mississippi State University

Migration research often fails to explicitly consider the impact that large concentrations of population in spatial proximity have on migration patterns. We develop a measure that estimates the impact of spatial population concentration on migration for each of the 3100 U.S. counties, using a gravitational potential model with a negative exponential distance decay function. We use a multivariate GWR model incorporating the demographic, economic and amenity characteristics of a county together with this measure of the spatial population concentrations to predict migration. Our research objectives are: to develop a measure that explicitly takes into account the influence of spatially proximate population concentrations on migration; and to incorporate our measure of spatial population proximity into a model that estimates the impact of a variety of demographic, economic and social characteristics of a county on migration.