Progress through School in Urban South Africa: Evidence from Panel Data

David Lam, University of Michigan
Cally C. Ardington, University of Cape Town
Murray Leibbrandt, University of Cape Town

This paper uses the Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS), a longitudinal survey of 4,800 youth in Cape Town, South Africa, to analyze the impact of individual, household, and school characteristics on progress through school. CAPS provides data on 1,500 students who were enrolled in grades 8-10 in 2002. Following these students over the next three years, we document large differences in the probability of grade advancement between white, coloured, and African youth. Probit regressions indicate that grade advancement between 2002 and 2005 is strongly associated with the respondents’ performance on the literacy and numeracy evaluation administered in 2002. Controlling for these test scores eliminates the white and coloured advantage over Africans in progress through school. We also estimate large effects of household income, and find a negative impact of household shocks such as the loss of employment or death of an adult household member.