Poverty and Fertility Decline in Rural Pakistan: Results of a Longitudinal Study in Punjab and NWFP.

Sharon J. Ghuman, Population Council
Zeba A. Sathar, Population Council
Cynthia B. Lloyd, Population Council

Since the late 1980’s, fertility has been falling rapidly in Pakistan. Moreover, in the past five years, poverty rates have also been falling, although recent estimates show that about one third of the population remains below the poverty line. In this paper, we plan to use longitudinal data on women of reproductive age collected in 1997 and 2004 in rural Punjab and Northwest Fronter Province (NWFP) to understand some of the factors which may underlie changes in both aspirations and behavior related to fertility in recent years. In addition to examining the complex relationship between changes in economic status along multiple dimensions (e.g. consumption, income and experience of economic shocks) and family building behavior, we consider the recent availability of door to door contraceptives, as well as rising aspirations in a context of globalization and expanded schooling opportunities for children.