The Protective Effect of Male Circumcision on HIV in Kenya

Yanyi K. Djamba, Southeastern Louisiana University
LaToya S. Davis, Southeastern Louisiana University

This paper uses data from the 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative sample, to examine the association between male circumcision and HIV infection. The results show that 4.6 percent of men were HIV positive; 85 percent of all men in the sample were circumcised. The prevalence of HIV was significantly higher among uncircumcised men (12 percent), as compared to the circumcised ones (3 percent). We also found significantly higher prevalence of HIV among richer men. The logistic regression results show that male circumcision is the most important and significant predictor of HIV in Kenya. Net of the effects of socio-demographic variables and age at first sexual intercourse, uncircumcised men were 80 percent more likely to be HIV positive than circumcised men. The wealth impact became non-significant in the logistic regression model, suggesting that some of the independent variables may have mediating effects that we need to examine further.