Are Individuals' Family Size Preferences Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data

Frank Heiland, Florida State University
Warren C. Sanderson, Stony Brook University, State University of New York (SUNY)

While recent years have brought a renewed interest in fertility preference data, the properties of individuals' wanted fertility, in particular formation and stability, have received little attention. Using panel data of West German men and women, we document that more than 60% of individuals report the same wanted family size across survey waves and that the stability is lower among younger individuals. More than 50% of men and women want two children and up to 30% of those who state a preference for two children initially report a different number in the follow-up survey. Multivariate analysis indicates that individuals' experiences explain little of the person-specific variation in preferences. We find that the second child increases the desired number by 0.2 and that unemployment reduces wanted fertility for women, but there is no evidence that changes in income and marital or partnership status affect preferences. We conclude that researchers can expect some variation in individuals' preferences over time, much of which, however, appears to be unsystematic.