The Demography of U.S. Veterans: Changing Military Staffing Policy and Influence on Risk of Service for Black and White Men, 1950 - 2004

Amy K. Bailey, University of Washington

This paper evaluates the relative risk of military service for young adult black and white men in 1950, 1970, 1990, and 2004, and the composition of the veteran population. These decades allow me to isolate social and demographic features that differentially select black and white men into military service -- and ultimately into the veteran population -- in four distinct staffing policy eras: World War II, the universal Cold War draft lottery, the transition from the Vietnam War to the All-Volunteer Force, and the entrenched AVF, with active recruiting campaigns offering money for college. For each cohort's sample, I will assess the likelihood of service separately for blacks and for whites, based on factors including state of birth and of residence, marital status and family structure, educational attainment, occupational status, and income. I will also conduct logistic regression analyses to predict the likelihood of service by each of these characteristics.