Understanding Fertility Decline in Egypt

Fatma El- Zanaty, El- Zanaty & Associates

One of the main goals of the Government of Egypt is to achieve the replacement level (TFR of 2.1 births per woman). Data from EDHS surveys indicated that TFR declined by 0.8 births between 1992 and 2005, while the decline in the total marital fertility rate (TMFR) was 0.9 from a level of 5.5 births per married woman in 1992 to 4.6 in 2005. TMFR declined in rural areas from a level of 6.1 births per married woman on 1992 to 4.7 births in 2005, compared with almost no decline in urban area over the same period. The paper will attempt to understand in more depth how the overall TFR and TMFR are shaped by household’s wealth, education of women, and residence. The paper assesses the change and investigates the determinants of TMFR.