International Migration, Regional Variation, and Human Capital Formation in Mexico

Fernando Riosmena, University of Wisconsin at Madison

In this paper we estimate net international migration from/to Mexico between 1990 and 2005 by sex, age, and level of education. While there are various estimates using (mainly) US sources, we aim to provide a more detailed set of estimates by (5-year) period, region and level of education. We use data from Mexican censuses, population enumerations, the educational system, and surveys to fit an extension of the Hill Method, an indirect estimation technique akin to demographic analysis. Our formulation extends the method to obtain region- and education-specific estimates. These calculations will provide more detail on the timing, regional scope, and social characteristics of recent immigration from Mexico. In addition, they can be used for decomposing change in human capital stocks, and as a basis to project the size and composition of the labor force as Mexico undergoes the main phase of its demographic ‘dividend’ in the next few years.