Demographic Change and Future Carbon Emissions in China and India

Michael Dalton, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Leiwen Jiang, Brown University
Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Brian C. O'Neill, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

This paper investigates whether expected changes in demographic characteristics of Chinese and Indian households over the next 25-50 years could have a substantial influence on consumption, economic growth, total energy demand, and carbon dioxide emissions, an important greenhouse gas. We develop new household projections for China and India intended to bracket a wide range of plausible outcomes for changes in population size, urban/rural status, age structure, and household size. Benchmark demand for consumer goods, supplies of labor, and capital, are estimated from household surveys and production data for each country. A global energy-economic growth model is used to simulate consumption of various goods, direct and indirect energy demand, and carbon emissions. Effects of demographic change are compared under different scenarios to technical change over the time horizon of analysis. Results show how demographic heterogeneity in China and India could affect future energy use and carbon emissions in these countries.