Estimation of Excess in Context of AIDS Deaths and the Probable Causes 1994-2002

Madhulekha Bhattacharya, National Institute of Health and Family Welfare, India
Sutapa Neogi, National Institute of Health and Family Welfare, India
Ruchi Sogarwal, National AIDS Control Organization (NACO)

Review of sample registration system revealed that age-specific death rates at 25-49 years declined from 1982 till the mid 1990s and after that showed a marginal increase. Hence residence and sex-wise estimation of excess deaths in the major states of India were computed 25-49 age group by adopting Kink Regression method, and effort has been made to link the increase to AIDS deaths. The difference in the observed and estimated death rates from 1982 to 2002 putting a kink in 1993 gave the excess deaths that have occurred from 1994 to 2002. Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu contributed more than 50 percent of the excess deaths. Causes of death were analysed for TB, infectious and parasitic diseases, neoplasms, cardiac and ill-defined illnesses, poisoning, injury and maternal deaths. No significant changes in the rates for the causes are elicited.