A Re-Evaluation of the Arriaga Fertility Method

Peter Johnson, U.S. Census Bureau
Lisa R. Lollock, U.S. Census Bureau

The Arriaga fertility method (1983) estimates fertility levels by comparing two or more sets of average children ever born (CEB). These estimates are then used to adjust observed fertility patterns in a manner similar to the Brass P/F ratio method. The method was designed to be useful in cases where the Brass P/F ratio method is not appropriate because the level of fertility has been changing. The method was implemented as part of the Population Analysis System (PAS) spreadsheets as ARFE-2 (for two dates) or ARFE-3 (for three dates). This analysis will review the Arriaga method from the theoretical perspective as well as based on simulations. The paper will address the performance of the method, as implemented, under different assumptions regarding fertility change, the effect of fertility under age 15, as well as the impact of the number of decimal places and sample variation in the average parity data.